Tournament Workbook

March Madness Trend Simulator

Traditional bracket tree, spreadsheet chrome, and a sophisticated rule engine.

Runs one fresh simulation using your current rules and weights.
Runs a pool-aware optimizer that scores candidates by expected points, leverage, and win-equity proxy.
Workspace Map
Bracket Hub
Current view Setup
Bracket Summary
Champion Arizona
Final Four Teams UCF, Houston, Arizona, Michigan
Final Four Seeds 10, 2, 1, 1
Biggest Cinderella Wright State (14) - Sweet 16
Round of 64 Upsets 7
Score A higher score means the bracket aligned more strongly with the enabled trend rules and the simulator's scoring model. 167.5
Pool Profile
Sets pool size and chalk tendency for the optimizer.
Mid-size pools balance expected points with selective uniqueness.
Opponent field
Mix of favorites and selective upsets.
Access Trial Open

Preview bracket now, then unlock fresh runs, optimizer access, exports, and full controls when you’re ready.

East Region

UCF wins region
Round of 64
1 Duke
16 Siena
98% Seed-hold
Rule log
  • Rule Triggered: Kill Shot Margin Advantage (+0.69)
  • Rule Triggered: ShotQuality Edge (+0.048)
8 Ohio State
9 TCU
50% Seed-hold
Rule log
  • Rule Triggered: ShotQuality Edge (+0.015)
5 St. John's
12 UNI
61% Seed-hold
Rule log
  • Rule Triggered: 12-seed upset boost
  • Rule Triggered: Kill Shot Margin Advantage (+0.32)
  • Rule Triggered: ShotQuality Edge (+0.015)
4 Kansas
13 Cal Baptist
79% Seed-hold
6 Louisville
11 South Florida
60% Upset
Rule log
  • Rule Triggered: 11-seed recent trend boost
  • Rule Triggered: Kill Shot Margin Advantage (+0.28)
  • Rule Triggered: ShotQuality Edge (+0.028)
3 Michigan State
14 North Dakota State
89% Seed-hold
Rule log
  • Rule Triggered: ShotQuality Edge (+0.037)
7 UCLA
10 UCF
62% Upset
Rule log
  • Rule Triggered: ShotQuality Edge (+0.008)
2 UConn
15 Furman
95% Seed-hold
Rule log
  • Rule Triggered: ShotQuality Edge (+0.025)
Round of 32
1 Duke
8 Ohio State
95% Seed-hold
Rule log
  • Rule Triggered: Kill Shot Margin Advantage (+0.61)
  • Rule Triggered: ShotQuality Edge (+0.019)
5 St. John's
4 Kansas
37% Seed-hold
Rule log
  • Rule Triggered: Kill Shot Margin Advantage (+0.47)
  • Rule Triggered: ShotQuality Edge (+0.012)
11 South Florida
3 Michigan State
7% Upset
Rule log
  • Rule Triggered: ShotQuality Disadvantage (-0.010)
10 UCF
2 UConn
10% Upset
Rule log
  • Rule Triggered: 10-seed Sweet 16 bias
  • Rule Triggered: ShotQuality Disadvantage (-0.017)
Sweet 16
1 Duke
4 Kansas
90% Seed-hold
Rule log
  • Rule Triggered: overall No. 1 seed penalty
  • Rule Triggered: Kill Shot Margin Advantage (+0.76)
  • Rule Triggered: ShotQuality Edge (+0.038)
11 South Florida
10 UCF
34% Seed-hold
Rule log
  • Rule Triggered: Kill Shot Margin Advantage (+0.52)
Elite 8
1 Duke
10 UCF
92% Upset
Rule log
  • Rule Triggered: overall No. 1 seed penalty
  • Rule Triggered: 1-seeds vs. the field title advantage
  • Rule Triggered: Kill Shot Margin Advantage (+0.95)
  • Rule Triggered: ShotQuality Edge (+0.038)
Review Desk

Check historical realism, hard-rule integrity, optimizer output, and source-data health in one place.

Trend Dashboard
Round of 64 upsets7
Round of 32 upsets3
Sweet 16 upsets1
Cinderella teams3
Triggered rules78
Wright State (14) - Sweet 16South Florida (11) - Sweet 16UCF (10) - Final Four
Integrity Report
All enabled hard rules passed.
All enabled hard rules passed.
Data Inputs

The app reads the provided Week 6 AP Poll and raw 2026 bracket reference. Duplicate-name warnings are surfaced instead of silently ignored so the tree stays honest about the source data.

fx
Integrity PASS Champion = Arizona (1) | Seed = 25503092 | Retries = 662